While the month of November is the 2nd strongest month of the year (and this year the S&P 500 is already up over 8% so far this month), the week of Thanksgiving is particularly strong. Over the past 68 years, the day before Thanksgiving and the day after Thanksgiving, combined have only been negative 17 times for a 75% success rate (although, in recent history, these two days have had a negative sum in all of the last three years).
We don’t base trades on such historical findings given the relatively small sample size and generally feel that any kind of market prediction is sheer folly. In contrast, all of our trading models are reactive in nature – responding to recent price moves and market volatility statistics. Nonetheless, it’s noteworthy to share and more fodder for any cocktail conversations that may occur over the holiday weekend.
Anyway, regardless of the pandemic and any other headwinds you may face, we hope you enjoy the week of Thanksgiving with friends and family, reflect upon the first eleven months of the year and feel much gratitude.
Forte Strategy Update
We executed two trades last week for a net loss of 0.3% compared to a loss of 0.8% by the S&P 500. Our YTD results equal a 4.6% gain compared to a 10.1% gain for the S&P 500. Our YTD max drawdown is 9.5% versus 33.9% for the general market. The account correlation to the S&P 500 remains low at 0.137. We continue to work on an overall portfolio approach to blend together a classic buy-and-hold strategy, our existing Forte strategy, and a new slow-trading Nasdaq strategy we’ve named Adagio. We’ll launch this new strategy on the Collective2 website soon and provide more details on our portfolio research.
More details about our trading activity can be found by registering on the Collective2 website and searching for Forte Strategy. A running list of these email blogs and general information about Maestro Capital Research can be found at maestrocapitalresearch.com.